CFTC Investigates Adam Kinzinger Over Kalshi Pardon Bets
Federal regulators are examining whether the former congressman improperly traded prediction market contracts tied to his own presidential pardon.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened an inquiry into former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over trades he placed on the prediction market platform Kalshi in the weeks preceding his presidential pardon in January 2025, according to a report by The New York Times.
The investigation centers on whether Kinzinger, a Republican who gained national prominence for his role on the House committee that investigated the January 6 Capitol attack, had advance knowledge that a pardon was forthcoming when he placed the bets. Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to wager real money on the probability of specific real-world outcomes, including political events.
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The CFTC, which oversees derivatives and futures markets in the United States, has jurisdiction over regulated prediction market platforms. If investigators determine that Kinzinger traded on material non-public information about his own pardon, the case could raise novel legal questions about insider trading in the rapidly expanding prediction market industry.
Kinzinger received his pardon in January 2025. The precise nature and size of the bets he placed on Kalshi have not been fully detailed in public disclosures. The inquiry adds regulatory scrutiny to a platform that has emerged as one of the most prominent players in the legalized prediction market space in recent years.
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